Hezbollah and Israel appeared to de-escalate after a major confrontation over the weekend, tempering fears of an all-out conflict in the Middle East. But for people across the region, any feelings of relief were undercut by a deeper sense of deadlock.
After over 10 months of war in Gaza, roughly 150,000 displaced Israelis and Lebanese are still waiting to return to their homes along the countries’ border, where Israeli forces and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia, were trading airstrikes and rocket fire long before Sunday’s escalation.
The violence there is intertwined with the 10-month war in Gaza, where tens of thousands have been killed and nearly the entire population displaced. Many there are still waiting for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, as they huddle into makeshift shelters and streets torn up by Israeli bombardment. The families of the dozens of hostages still held by Hamas and its allies hope for a deal, too, to free their loved ones.
“The mission needs to be to get us home,” said Giora Zaltz, the head of a regional council in northern Israel whose kibbutz, Lehavot HaBashan, saw some residents leave after Hezbollah began firing at Israel last October.
Mr. Zaltz said Israel’s airstrikes on Sunday, which the Israeli military said had pre-empted a significant Hezbollah assault, had done little to change the balance between the two sides. For residents of Israeli border communities, he said, the situation remained frozen: roughly 60,000 Israelis displaced, even as those who stayed behind faced daily rocket fire by Hezbollah.
Israel’s focus in fighting Hezbollah has been “to blow up infrastructure or kill their commanders,” Mr. Zaltz said. But in terms of creating the conditions for displaced Israelis to return home, he added, “for now, the state and the military are failing at this.”
Tensions across the Middle East had been high for weeks after the assassinations in quick succession of Fuad Shukr, a senior leader in Hezbollah, and Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas. The Israeli military said it had killed Mr. Shukr in an airstrike but has not claimed responsibility for Mr. Haniyeh’s death, though Hezbollah and Iran — which backs both groups — vowed serious reprisals against Israel for the killings.
Israel’s predawn strikes on Hezbollah on Sunday were followed by a massive Hezbollah barrage of rockets and drones, though they caused little apparent damage. Both sides quickly declared victory and suggested they would return to what has become the new norm: endless rounds of tit-for-tat strikes. Iran, for its part, appears to have held back its vengeance — at least for now.
In Lebanon, many were relieved after both Israel and Hezbollah signaled that they would step back from all-out war. Zeinab Hourani, a graphic designer who lives in Beirut’s southern suburbs — a Hezbollah stronghold — said the nearly deserted streets were returning to life.
Ms. Hourani said she had put some of her plans on hold and had begun looking for an apartment outside the suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, fearing that Israel would target the area. But after Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, gave a speech Sunday afternoon suggesting that the clashes would be contained, “some people who left because of the tension are back,” she said.
But for the more than 100,000 Lebanese displaced from the country’s south, the conflict and disruption continue. Mr. Nasrallah has vowed to continue fighting until Israel ends its campaign against Hamas in Gaza, and months of cease-fire talks mediated by the United States, Egypt and Qatar have failed to bridge key differences between the two sides.
Fatima al-Srour, who had fled her hometown of Ramyeh, close to the border with Israel, said her father had wanted to pack up and return there after the clashes on Sunday quieted down. But she stopped him, knowing the village was still unsafe.
“We are connected with Gaza, and our return doesn’t appear to be happening soon,” said Ms. al-Srour, 35.
For Gazans, the sense of desperation is even greater as the war approaches the 11-month mark, with more than 40,000 people killed, according to the Gazan Health Ministry.
In Deir al Balah, an area of central Gaza crowded with hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians, Samih Saad waited at a field hospital hoping to receive the latest round of treatment for his leg, which he said was wounded months ago by shrapnel in a blast from a falling shell.
Many Gazans, he said, feared that an expansion of the war across the region could prolong Israel’s offensive in Gaza for months. Even if that prospect has dimmed for now, he said, most held out little hope that the cease-fire talks would succeed.
“Each time there’s a lull, we hope that it might be over soon,” he said. “But that always turns out to be mistaken.”